I think Italy has good chances. I believe the momentum Spain had two years ago (very successful sports year, a.o. with Nadal) helped their morale and therewith helped them reach a better result.
In the past two weeks, Internazionale won the Champions' League and Ivan Basso won the Giro, so this time the morale boost is on the side of the Italians.
Apart from that, the Italians are always tough bastards who tend to know what to do to win. That, and their country rocks.
Other countries which I think might make it far: Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain.
England and the Netherlands have the tendency to do well and then fail horribly in a clumsy way. Argentina, Brazil and Germany are always forces to reckon with, and Portugal and Spain are usually pretty good. But I have a severe dislike of the Iberians, so I hope they will lose in the pool phase. Which is rather unlikely.
